Thoughts on Stock Investing

I recently dabbled with on stocks. very low initial capital only. I’m determined to learn from this experience and slowly but surely turn it into a portfolio worth millions.

I consider stocks having the highest potential returns but of course with high risk as well. But my belief is that if you do your homework properly, you can’t go wrong with stocks. Well, withstanding any calamity or God’s act of some sort.

There are generally two approaches to stock investing:

1) Fundamental analysis, which involves understanding the financial numbers of the company and then valuing the company.

2) Technical analysis, which involves looking at trends and understanding the market sentiment on the stock market.

I want to approach this using both ways. Currently i do neither. I merely have a general idea of the company, its future plans, and is updated on its recent plans and earnings annoucements.

I will eventually get to doing serious homework.

Its amusing how you can make quick but rather small money when you time it well.

of course, the bigger your stake, you can make good money if you sell your holdings nicely.

it sure beats the 1.08 peso interest i earned last month on some savings accounts.

Eventually, some of my stocks will be for long term hold while some will be for trading purposes only knowing they fluctuate quite nicely.

my only advice is play the stock market only with your spare money, i.e. your investment money.

as for me, i make sure a part of the paycheck goes to this game called the stock market.

JPEPA – Gov’t desperate to get it ratified…

from businessworldonline:

DUE TO THE SEEMING inclination of the Senate to reject the Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement, or JPEPA, in its current form and push instead for renegotiation, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has signed an order forming an interagency task force that would work for ratification of the deal.

Protesters take part in a rally against the Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement outside the Department of Environment and Natural Resources in Manila, in this photo taken yesterday, adding fuel to the growing questions in the Senate that could derail ratification of the pact in its original form.

Administrative Order 198, signed last Sept. 28, seeks to pool the resources of 18 government agencies to provide information about the advantages of approving the bilateral agreement, which drew flak from various sectors due to its supposed negative impact on the environment.

These agencies are the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), Department of Agriculture, Department of Budget and Management, Department of Education, Department of Energy, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Department of Finance, Department of Health, Department of Justice, Department of Labor and Employment, Department of Public Works and Highways, Department of Science and Technology, Department of Tourism, Department of Transportation and Communication, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), Securities and Exchange Commission, and Office of the Solicitor General.

“There is a need to create a task force composed of different government agencies which will be tasked to put forward to the Senate the benefits, advantages and opportunities to the Philippine economy of a bilateral agreement with Japan,” Mrs. Arroyo said in the order.

In a chance interview, Executive Secretary Eduardo R. Ermita said the interagency body is tasked to come up with a better presentation to enable the senators to understand the benefits of the deal.

“The task force will create a better presentation for the senators. Why did I say better? Because the Senate has conducted two hearings [on the JPEPA] and, apparently, the senators are not yet convinced [that the deal entails net benefit for the country]. That is why the President has created this task force to focus on the ratification of JPEPA,” Mr. Ermita said.

“What has been in the mind-set of senators is the supposed dumping of toxic wastes in the country. They must show that the deal has a lot of benefits like better opportunities for Filipino workers, and investments. I think they should point out there are a lot of advantages.”

Mr. Ermita noted that the government has assured the Japanese government that it would strive to have the deal ratified.

Each government agency will have at least one representative who will be at least the third highest ranking official of the concerned agency. Other government offices may be invited to join the task force if deemed necessary.

The body will be headed by the representatives of the DFA and DTI.

The task force is tasked to coordinate with other government agencies to gather the necessary information to be presented to the Senate. It will also organize the resource documents pertinent to the hearings on JPEPA. Members are also required to attend the hearings.

The order likewise creates a Special Experts Panel on JPEPA, which will assist the task force in executing its functions. It shall be composed of officials and private individuals who have knowledge in law, international trade and economic cooperation. These shall be appointed by the members of the task force.

The funding for the task force shall come from the available funds of concerned agencies forming part of the task force.

Earlier, Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Senate foreign relations committee chairman, said JPEPA “has a slim chance” of getting her committee’s nod as the resource persons who promoted the agreement failed to convince them about the deal’s benefits to the country.

She noted, for instance, that the jobs JPEPA is supposed to generate — which the Trade department estimated at around 221,000 — are merely “theoretical” estimates without concrete details to back them up.

JPEPA was signed by Mrs. Arroyo and then Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in Helsinki, Finland, in September last year.

It removes import tariffs on about 90% of goods and services traded between the two countries.

It requires the approval of the Philippine Senate and Japanese Diet before it can be implemented. The Diet ratified the deal in December last year.

It needs 17 votes at the Senate. The Senate is set to conduct two more hearings on the agreement before it decides the deal’s fate.

Ms. Santiago said the Senate hearings on JPEPA would end on Monday next week. — Alexis Douglas B. Romero

**

This pact is controversial. I haven’t done much readings on it but from what i know so far, it’s the biggest potential deal we would have with Japan. In fact, a few days ago, Japan sweetened the deal by increasing the investment they will make in some sectors.
Personally, I think it’s a good deal so long we receive assurance that no toxic stuff will be dumped to us or any of environmental resources be depleted because of it. If it’s really pure trade, reduction of tariffs and controls, i’m all for it. If it means job mobility for filipinos to work in Japan, why not? heck, i want to go work there too in the future. time to brush up on nihonggo. lol. I think Japan is a huge economy waiting to be tapped by us. They’re near to us and we have history with them. hence, we should cultivate this relationship more economically.

on a side note, i only recently realized how powerful the senate is. I mean, such trade pacts cannot be put to use if the senate does not ratify it.

Bull?

(Philstar)

Still bullish for 2007
BUSINESS & LEISURE By Ray Butch Gamboa
Saturday, September 22, 2007

Yes, the business sector is still bullish for the rest of the year. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) continues to be a dynamic force in having the country forge ahead. BSP head Amando Tetangco and Deputy Governor Diwa Ginigundo tirelessly monitor all economic indicators affecting the country and their effects on the business sector.

In their most recent survey, where they screened third quarter results, they surveyed 1,063 firms.. They based their survey on the top 5000 corporations as cited by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Of this, 477 firms were within the National Capital Region while 1,586 were outside the NCR. The response from this representative sector was encouraging indeed.

Based on the survey, the business sector had an overall confidence in the economy. The confidence index on the outlook on Philippine economy was an amazing 40 percent, and as BSP officials claim, we’ve never had it this high.

Importers and exporters were likewise surveyed, and importers’ confidence index for 3rd quarter was at 47.5 percent. They are still bullish for the 4th quarter, with the confidence index reaching 59.6 percent. The same, though, cannot be said of exporters. For the third quarter, their confidence index was at an all-time low of 4.2 percent, though the exporters seem to be willing to give the turn of events for them the benefit of the doubt with a slightly higher rating of 6.3 percent for the 4th quarter.

A two percent improvement in their outlook for the fourth quarter of 2007 is optimistic indeed, but the tales of woe of the exporters continue relentlessly. As the Peso closed at its one-month high, due largely to the Federal Reserve slash of their rates (which was more than market analysts expected), this further aggravates an already dismal business environment for them. Investors appreciate the Bangko Sentral’s prompt reaction to the cut in interest rates. While this had a positive result on others (like the stock market for example whose index rose immediately on the strength of this announcement alone), the exporters are still at a loss. With regards to the bourses’ elated response to the development with the US Fed cut, they are still treading a bit more cautiously after that initial reaction in the wake of the very serious implications of the recent political developments rocking the country. This could very well reverse the positive gains we are enjoying, and market analysts not only here but in neighboring Asian countries are monitoring this very closely.

As the Peso gained another 56 centavos, we inch nearer to the forecast we made earlier (around the middle of the year) that the Peso would likely close at P45.50 by year end based on the strong dollar remittances from our super heroes, the OFWs, and of course the balance of payment surplus that we have been enjoying.

Asked how they felt about the performance of the Philippine peso, the respondents felt that the peso performed very well in the second quarter, and would be strong and stable for Q3 and Q4, They rated the inflation rate low in Q2 and Q3 but predicted this to be higher in the fourth quarter. The same goes for the peso borrowing rate.

There are several factors to be considered here. For one, the effects of the VAT could slowly be dissipating. The country reeled from this early last year, and it is only now that we are adjusting and recovering. The lower interest rates could also be a positive factor, and for agricultural products, the effects of El Nino are now slowly dissipating as well. The agricultural sector is slowly getting back to its feet as the farms get irrigated.

The apprehensions for the fourth quarter, on the other hand, are due mainly to the following factors: a) competition b) insufficient demand c) financial problems.

Even the medium and large firms were optimistic for Q3 and Q4. Large firms (those employing 500 or more) had a confidence index of 39.5 percent for the third quarter and a very optimistic 55.1 percent for the 4th quarter, while the medium firms (those with 100 to 500 employees) registered an index of 42.2 percent for Q3 and a slightly better 48.8 percent for Q4. The smaller firms (employing less than 100) registered an index of 33.6 percent for Q3, though this jumped dramatically to 53.8 percent for the 4th quarter.

The BSP reports that even the sectoral outlook shares this general optimism. Their survey included the construction sector and the services sector as well. Of this, the financial sector registered the highest level of confidence. The positive view of the respondents in this latest survey is due to the following factors:

1. A generally stable macroeconomic environment

2.Increased remittances from overseas Filipino workers

3. Solid performance of the Asian countries

4. The coming holiday season

5. New and enhance business strategies

Even as the business conditions continue to improve, access to credit has likewise improved. The BSP slashed its own discount rates in reaction to the US Federal Reserve cuts rate by a half point. This is the interest the BSP charges the local banks for direct loans. There could be further reduction in local interest rates that we could look forward to with this development, although the BSP is cautious about announcing more definitive terms.

With the optimistic overall business outlook on the local economy, it is only natural that employment expectations for the third and fourth quarter are very high. New grads are now finding it easier to find jobs than, say, five years ago. With the opening of more business outsource centers, more and more job opportunities await our countrymen. As long as we can keep those foreign investments pouring in, the prospects look good.

Mabuhay!!! Be proud to be a Filipino.

For comments: (e-mail) businessleisure-star@stv.com.ph

**

wow. very bullish. Then again it’s all perceptions. With all our political dramas, a slight mishap can be really damaging.

The poor will argue these are all bull indeed since there is no economic trickle down effect to them. It just stays at the top.

Peso appreciation? Our exports suffer. and close down.

OFW remittances? Yup, our best talents are going abroad. We probably have to import people at one point just so we have the necessary occupations we need.

GDP growth? It’s all government statistics. I don’t even know how they calculate their numbers. Hence I take them with a grain of salt. 7.5% recently….Wow. seriously? Also, relative to other rising asian economies like vietnam, it’s rather pitiful compared to them.

More BPOs and Call centers? I read somewhere there is now a deficiency in quality graduates speaking good english…. This spells trouble i think. Aside from this, what area of employment are we good at? Oh wait, they’re all going abroad pala.

Jollibee buys Beijing restaurant chain for $50.5M

(Businessworld Online)
“We are encouraged by our continued progress in our foreign businesses, including Yonghe King in China. Hongzhuangyuan will be a strong addition to our presence in China, in terms of market segment and geographical coverage,” a disclosure to the stock exchage quoted Jollibee Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Tony Tan Caktiong as saying.

Hongzhuangyuan consists of 26 company-owned stores all located in Beijing and seven franchised stores in other cities, the statement read.

“The brand has a unique concept, consisting of serving a variety of local Chinese food centered around congee. The product offerings at their price points provide superior value, thus attracting a high number of customers at different parts of the day. We believe that this restaurant chain has the potential for broad acceptance across China,” Mr. Tan Caktiong said of the Chinese food chain.

The disclosure also quoted Jollibee Chief Finance Officer Ysmael V. Baysa as saying that the acquisition will cost the company an estimated $50.5 million, noting that Jollibee’s latest foreign acquisition has a track record of profitability and has no debt. He added that the acquisition will be financed with existing funds.

Jollibee’s acquisition may take several more months to complete and is subject to fulfillment of conditions stated by the entrepreneurs who are selling the business, the statement read further. Over the past four years, Jollibee has been acquiring new businesses and shares in existing business ventures.

In May last year, Jollibee opened Chun Shui Tang (Spring Water Teahouse), which caters to those working in the Shanghai metropolitan center. Jollibee bought the high-end teahouse for $350,000.

And just last June, Jollibee bought the remaining 15% stake of Yonghe King fast food chain for $6 million, three years after it acquired 85% for $11.5 million.

Jollibee now operates 1,559 stores worldwide — it has 12 stores in the USA alone, and also operates in Brunei, Hong Kong, Saipan and Vietnam.

Besides it hamburger chain, Jollibee has three subsidiaries, namely: Greenwich Pizza and Chowking Food Corp. which it bought in 1994 and 2000, respectively, as well as the local franchise of Delifrance which it acquired in 1995. — **

Well, not only do we dominate the world with OFWs, we do it with Acquistions as well =)

Assuming Jollibee did their due diligence well before this acquistion, I think expanding overseas is a good way to futher increase the value of the corporation. They probably think the local market is saturated already and to increase revenues, one way to do it is to tap the international market.

I’m not so sure how investors in Jollibee reacted to it. I think the share price remained stable. But stock wise, Jollibee is a solid buy with strong fundamentals. I’m lazy to do all those financial analysis on them since I believe in the efficient market hypothesis. lol. half joke. Just basing on this, if they manage their overseas acquisitions well, i think the share price will reflect that in the long run.

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